Subject: Re: Berkshire's stock price
In 2017, question 15, Buffett said in the previous 10 years they compounded intrinsic value at 'about 10 percent'

"and I think that's going to be tough to achieve, in fact almost impossible to achieve, if we continued in this interest ate environment

That's the number one ' if you asked me to give the answer to the question, if I could only pick one statistic to ask you about the future before I gave the answer, I would not ask you about GDP growth. I would not ask you about who was going to be president.

I would ' a million things ' I would ask you what the interest rate is going to be over the next 20 years on average, the 10-year or whatever you wanted to do.

And if you assume our present interest rate structure is likely to be the average over 10 or 20 years, then I would say it'd be very difficult to get to 10 percent.

On the other hand, if I were to pick with a whole range of probabilities on interest rates, I would say that that rate might be ' it might be somewhat aspirational. And it might well ' it might be doable.

And if you would say, 'Well, we can't continue these interest rates for a long time,' I would ask you to look at Japan, you know, where 25 years ago, we couldn't see how their interest rates could be sustained. And we're still looking at the same thing.

So I do not think it's easy to predict the course of interest rates at all. And unfortunately, predicting that is embedded in giving a good answer to you.

I would say the chances of getting a terrible result in Berkshire are probably as low as about anything you can find. Chance of getting a sensational result are also about as low as anything you can find. So if I ' I would ' I '

My best guess would be in the 10 percent range, but that assumes somewhat higher interest rates ' not dramatically higher ' but somewhat higher interest rates in the next 10 or 20 years than we've experienced in the last seven years."

That is all lifted from the Buffett archive. My take, is we have dramatically higher rates now, and this is not a headwind for berkshire, if anything its a tailwind and lends credence to the idea that the stock should be doing well right now.

Float is $150 billion, imagine that getting 5.5% or more?