Subject: Re: Is Morningstar dishonest?
I calculate an average equity premium (1yrExcessSR) of 6.1% using the Shiller CAPE data. This is close to what Wikipedia writes "around 5% to 8% in the United States".

                avg
   AvgCAEYb     7.7%
 
Avg10yrStockSR  6.7%
Avg5yrStockSR   7.0%
Avg3yrStockSR   7.2%
Avg1yrStockSR   8.4%
 
 10yrExcessSR   4.6%
  5yrExcessSR   4.9%
  3yrExcessSR   5.0%
  1yrExcessSR   6.1%

"The equity risk premium is equal to the difference between equity returns and returns from government bonds. It is equal to around 5% to 8% in the United States. The risk premium represents the compensation awarded to the equity holder for taking on a higher risk by investing in equities rather than government bonds. However, the 5% to 8% premium is considered to be an implausibly high difference and the equity premium puzzle refers to the unexplained reasons driving this disparity."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

Some preliminary actionable signals:

high CAEYb (qCAEYb=4)
expect high Avg1yrStockSR (high 1-year real stock return)
increase stock leverage

low CAEYb (qCAEYb=0)
expect low Avg3yrExcessSR (stock return lower than bond return)
wait 1 year, and then increase bond weight.
(Avg3yrExcessSR is lower than Avg1yrExcessSR, and so the best relative bond returns were in years 2 and 3.)

But averages can hide problems, and so more work is needed on this possible signal.